With all the excitement surrounding the recent election, I thought it might be interesting to look at how real estate trends have shifted in Kingwood, TX over the past few years—from the Trump presidency (2017-2020) to the Biden presidency (2021-2024). This could give us some clues about what might be coming in the next four years.
For this analysis, I’m focusing on single-family homes in the 77345 and 77339 area codes. However, if you’re interested in a different area around Houston, just let me know! While I can’t predict the future, I’m happy to share the data and let you draw your own conclusions.
Let’s dive in!
Active Listings and List Price per Square Foot
Looking at the data, two trends stand out right away: during the Trump presidency, there were more active listings, and the list price per square foot was lower. When Biden took office, we saw a drop in active listings, and in response, the average price of homes started to climb.
In between, the pandemic hit. COVID-19 caused a huge economic slowdown as businesses shut down and many families pulled back on spending. The Federal Reserve reacted by lowering interest rates to keep the economy moving. This helped fuel demand for homes between 2020 and 2022. From 2022 to 2024, we saw a recovery as public confidence slowly returned, and interest rates began to rise again.
Now, let’s take a look at the interest rates during this same period:
From 2020 to 2022, interest rates were incredibly low! This created a great opportunity for buyers and homeowners looking to refinance. However, low rates can’t last forever. As the economy recovered and people went back to work, demand for credit soared, pushing inflation higher. To help manage inflation, the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates.
Despite the rising rates, home prices continued to climb. As we look ahead to December 2024, when interest rates may start to come down again, it’ll be interesting to see how this affects the number of active listings and home prices. If supply increases, prices might level off. So, a reduction in interest rates could keep the trend of more listings and stable prices going.
Days on Market & Close Price to Original Price Ratio
Now, let’s take a look at Days on Market (DOM) and the Close Price to Original Price Ratio.
When DOM is high, we’re typically looking at a buyer’s market—homes are sitting for longer, and buyers have the upper hand. They can negotiate for a lower price. The Close Price to Original Price ratio tells us how close the seller is getting to their original asking price. If this number is close to or above 1, it’s a seller’s market since sellers are getting close to or even more than what they initially asked for. A lower ratio typically signals a buyer’s market.
Here’s the breakdown for the 2017-2024 period:
During the Trump presidency, DOM was relatively high until the pandemic hit, which caused a dramatic drop in both active listings and days on market. Fewer listings meant fewer options for buyers, so homes didn’t stay on the market as long.
Interestingly, this also led to an increase in home prices, which was good news for sellers but not so great for buyers. However, with low interest rates, it was still an excellent time for those looking to buy.
After COVID and the drop in interest rates, we saw a clear seller’s market, with DOM relatively low and the Close Price to Original Price ratio high. As interest rates started to rise, we saw a more balanced market under Biden, with fewer extreme swings in either direction.
Number of Sales vs. Active Listings
Let’s finish up by comparing Number of Sales with Active Listings during both presidencies:
As you can see, during the Trump presidency, the average number of homes sold was higher—about 102 homes per month—compared to 89 homes per month during the Biden presidency. During COVID, with fewer active listings available, the number of homes sold increased to an average of 121 homes per month. That explains why prices went up during that period.
The average number of homes sold across both administrations (from 2017 to 2024) was about 96 homes per month. Even though active listings is now increasing, the number of homes sold continues to stay relatively low. However, if prices level off and interest rates come down, we could see sales pick up again.
What’s Next for the Market?
So, what does all this mean? Will the market shift when Trump returns to office? A decrease in interest rates could encourage more buyers, which would help bring down the average price per square foot and make home-buying more accessible.
Looking back, the Trump era seemed more favorable for buyers, with lower prices and more listings, while the Biden years were better for sellers, with fewer listings and higher prices. So, depending on what happens with interest rates and the economy, we could see a shift favoring the buyer—or perhaps even a seller’s market if the federal reserve decides not to lower interest rates.
Many are looking at what's going to happen to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) established in 1938 and 1970, respectively, to make home loans more affordable and accessible. Trump and his allies have indicated their desire to privatize these GSEs, which may or may not make the cost of home buying higher for the average American. I will be keeping an eye on this story over the next few years!
Bottom Line: Should You Buy or Sell Now?
If you’re a homeowner, congratulations! Your home value has likely increased over the past few years. If you’re looking to buy, now might be a good time to take the plunge—listings are going up, prices are leveling off, and sales are relatively slow. Plus, you'll get in before the possible privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Regardless of the outcome, there is some uncertainty when there is a restructuring of government entities.
This is just my take on the data, and I’d love to hear what you think! If you have a different perspective or more data to add, feel free to drop a comment below. Thanks for reading!
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